I am a co-author on a new article that can be found here. It is titled "The Rise of the Middle Class in East and Southern Africa: Implications for Food System Transformation". The paper makes a few points that have policy implications:
- Urbanization and economic development is occurring rapidly in many Sub-Saharan African countries
- There is a growing urban middle class which is associated with a rapidly shifting structure of food demand - away from staple grains and towards processed and fresh perishable foods.
- The current system is not sufficient to support this demand.
- While many people predict that much of this growing demand will be provided by imports, we show that the share of imported food has actually decreased with rising incomes
- However Africa still imports more than what would be predicted relative to other developing countries, suggesting much more room for improvement in the development of the local food industry
- More research and investment is needed in the development of the food processing sectors and fresh perishable food supply chains in order to 1) ensure food security and decrease reliance on imports, 2) support small farmers, and 3) provide sources of employment for the burgeoning youth population.